Polls reveal region's sour mood
FROM THE CLEVELAND PLAIN DEALER
Posted by nbye November 15, 2007 06:03AM
Several recent state polls offer Republican and Democratic presidential candidates something more valuable than money: a window into Ohio's psyche.
While these polls, including one from The Plain Dealer, are only snapshots in time and limited by sample size, they are the closest thing they can get to political ESP.
The candidates, however, don't need special powers to read voters' minds about President Bush's leadership and his handling of the war in Iraq.
Voters are overwhelmingly unhappy with both, according to three polls released in the last week
These reflect a strong national trend, says Karlyn Bowman, who studies opinion polls at a Washington think tank, the American Enterprise Institute.
"There is a pretty clear sense that the public wants change," she said. "There is a very sour mood."
At the same time, the Ohio polls suggest that voters are not willing to hold Bush's problems against Republican candidates at all costs.
And the parties' respective front-runners -- Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Rudy Giuliani -- also still face considerable challenges from voters.
A Quinnipiac University poll of 1,231 registered voters, conducted Nov. 6-11 and released Wednesday, shows Clinton and Giuliani have commanding leads within their parties and are deadlocked in a head-to-head match-up.
But 41 percent of voters surveyed by Quinnipiac say they would never vote for Clinton, and 39 percent say they would never consider Giuliani
A Plain Dealer poll of 625 likely voters, conducted Nov. 5-7, shows similar sentiments: 55 percent of voters say they would never vote for Clinton while, 43 percent say they would never vote for Giuliani.
Richard Bartel of McDonald, Ohio, who participated in The Plain Dealer poll, said he would not vote for either one.
"I wouldn't vote for Hillary, but not because she's a woman," says Bartel, a Teamster who describes himself as an independent.
"I think she's very smart, but we saw her true colors already."
About Giuliani, Bartel says he "is a too far left-leaning conservative."
Both Giuliani and Clinton receive support from more than 90 percent of voters within their respective parties. But independent voters, who could swing the election in a highly partisan contest, are more leery of Clinton. Fifty-nine percent said they would not vote for her; 42 percent said they would not vote for Giuliani.
Voters surveyed in The Plain Dealer poll are the kindest to Bush, who earns a 40 percent approval rating in the survey.
Just 31 percent of 713 registered voters interviewed in the University of Cincinnati's Ohio Poll, conducted Oct. 19-31, approve of the president's performance.
The Quinnipiac poll puts Bush's approval rating at 29 percent.
Looking within the University of Cincinnati's numbers, Republicans might worry because evangelical Protestants, a key Republican constituency, are split over whether Bush is doing a good job.
Bush earns poor marks for his handling of the war in Iraq in The Plain Dealer and Cincinnati polls.
Though the Quinnipiac poll did not ask the same question about the war in Iraq, it tries to weigh the influence of the issue in the presidential race.
The poll shows 60 percent of voters disagree with the notion that Democrats are going to win the White House because of weak support for Bush and the war in Iraq.
"At some point, Bush will become part of the past, and voters will judge the candidates for themselves," Bowman predicts.
The Plain Dealer poll suggests Ohio's voters -- who backed Bush over Democrat John Kerry by two percentage points in 2004 -- may still look to the GOP to guide them on national security, immigration and taxes. Voters appear to trust Democrats more on health care, education and the economy.
Bowman says many national polls show Democrats leading Republicans on even national security, which is a top issue in the campaign.
Of the three recent Ohio polls, Quinnipiac's probed an issue that has become a parlor game among pundits and Democratic leaders: If nominated by her party, will Clinton tap Ohio's Democratic Gov. Ted Strickland as a running mate?
Ohioans really like Strickland, but they really don't think he's veep material, according to the poll.
Only 29 percent said he was qualified to be vice president of the United States, whereas 49 percent said he wasn't. Fifty-three percent said they don't want him to run.
And only 13 percent of Ohio voters said they would be more likely to vote for the Democratic ticket next year if Strickland were on it.
In the end, the three polls should tell the candidates at least one thing about Ohio voters: Their hearts and minds are not made up.
Plain Dealer Washington Bureau Chief Stephen Koff contributed to this report.
To reach this Plain Dealer reporter:
mnaymik@plaind.com, 216-999-4849
Posted by nbye November 15, 2007 06:03AM
Several recent state polls offer Republican and Democratic presidential candidates something more valuable than money: a window into Ohio's psyche.
While these polls, including one from The Plain Dealer, are only snapshots in time and limited by sample size, they are the closest thing they can get to political ESP.
The candidates, however, don't need special powers to read voters' minds about President Bush's leadership and his handling of the war in Iraq.
Voters are overwhelmingly unhappy with both, according to three polls released in the last week
These reflect a strong national trend, says Karlyn Bowman, who studies opinion polls at a Washington think tank, the American Enterprise Institute.
"There is a pretty clear sense that the public wants change," she said. "There is a very sour mood."
At the same time, the Ohio polls suggest that voters are not willing to hold Bush's problems against Republican candidates at all costs.
And the parties' respective front-runners -- Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Rudy Giuliani -- also still face considerable challenges from voters.
A Quinnipiac University poll of 1,231 registered voters, conducted Nov. 6-11 and released Wednesday, shows Clinton and Giuliani have commanding leads within their parties and are deadlocked in a head-to-head match-up.
But 41 percent of voters surveyed by Quinnipiac say they would never vote for Clinton, and 39 percent say they would never consider Giuliani
A Plain Dealer poll of 625 likely voters, conducted Nov. 5-7, shows similar sentiments: 55 percent of voters say they would never vote for Clinton while, 43 percent say they would never vote for Giuliani.
Richard Bartel of McDonald, Ohio, who participated in The Plain Dealer poll, said he would not vote for either one.
"I wouldn't vote for Hillary, but not because she's a woman," says Bartel, a Teamster who describes himself as an independent.
"I think she's very smart, but we saw her true colors already."
About Giuliani, Bartel says he "is a too far left-leaning conservative."
Both Giuliani and Clinton receive support from more than 90 percent of voters within their respective parties. But independent voters, who could swing the election in a highly partisan contest, are more leery of Clinton. Fifty-nine percent said they would not vote for her; 42 percent said they would not vote for Giuliani.
Voters surveyed in The Plain Dealer poll are the kindest to Bush, who earns a 40 percent approval rating in the survey.
Just 31 percent of 713 registered voters interviewed in the University of Cincinnati's Ohio Poll, conducted Oct. 19-31, approve of the president's performance.
The Quinnipiac poll puts Bush's approval rating at 29 percent.
Looking within the University of Cincinnati's numbers, Republicans might worry because evangelical Protestants, a key Republican constituency, are split over whether Bush is doing a good job.
Bush earns poor marks for his handling of the war in Iraq in The Plain Dealer and Cincinnati polls.
Though the Quinnipiac poll did not ask the same question about the war in Iraq, it tries to weigh the influence of the issue in the presidential race.
The poll shows 60 percent of voters disagree with the notion that Democrats are going to win the White House because of weak support for Bush and the war in Iraq.
"At some point, Bush will become part of the past, and voters will judge the candidates for themselves," Bowman predicts.
The Plain Dealer poll suggests Ohio's voters -- who backed Bush over Democrat John Kerry by two percentage points in 2004 -- may still look to the GOP to guide them on national security, immigration and taxes. Voters appear to trust Democrats more on health care, education and the economy.
Bowman says many national polls show Democrats leading Republicans on even national security, which is a top issue in the campaign.
Of the three recent Ohio polls, Quinnipiac's probed an issue that has become a parlor game among pundits and Democratic leaders: If nominated by her party, will Clinton tap Ohio's Democratic Gov. Ted Strickland as a running mate?
Ohioans really like Strickland, but they really don't think he's veep material, according to the poll.
Only 29 percent said he was qualified to be vice president of the United States, whereas 49 percent said he wasn't. Fifty-three percent said they don't want him to run.
And only 13 percent of Ohio voters said they would be more likely to vote for the Democratic ticket next year if Strickland were on it.
In the end, the three polls should tell the candidates at least one thing about Ohio voters: Their hearts and minds are not made up.
Plain Dealer Washington Bureau Chief Stephen Koff contributed to this report.
To reach this Plain Dealer reporter:
mnaymik@plaind.com, 216-999-4849
posted by Mark G Pogue at 6:34 AM
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